Market accuracy
Was the market right?
How often the betting-market favorite at kickoff actually won, across every played World Cup 2026 match.
64%The market's favorite won 64% of 104 played matches
Reliability by confidence
How often the favorite at each confidence level actually won. The closer a bar is to its band, the better calibrated the market.
<50%
48%n=27
50–60%
54%n=26
60–70%
76%n=21
70–80%
83%n=12
80–90%
73%n=15
90–100%
67%n=3 · small sample
By confidence level
77%
Clear favorite
30 matches
64%
Tight call
47 matches
48%
Toss-up
27 matches
Biggest upsets
Spainv
Cabo Verde0–0Favored at 93%
ArgentinavCabo Verde3–2Favored at 86%
Ecuadorv
Curaçao0–0Favored at 84%
Englandv
Ghana0–0Favored at 82%
Qatarv
Switzerland1–1Favored at 82%
Portugalv
DR Congo1–1Favored at 76%
Germanyv
Paraguay1–1Favored at 73%
Belgiumv
Iran0–0Favored at 70%
UruguayvCabo Verde2–2Favored at 69%
Saudi ArabiavUruguay1–1Favored at 67%- Belgiumv
Egypt1–1Favored at 63% - EcuadorvGermany2–1Favored at 61%
Brazilv
Morocco1–1Favored at 58%
South Africav
South Korea1–0Favored at 58%- ArgentinavSwitzerland3–1Favored at 57%
Australiav
Türkiye2–0Favored at 57%
FrancevEngland4–6Favored at 55%- Brazilv
Norway1–2Favored at 54% 
Canadav
Bosnia-Herzegovina1–1Favored at 53%- Iranv
New Zealand2–2Favored at 53% 
CzechiavSouth Africa1–1Favored at 53%- NorwayvEngland1–2Favored at 52%
ColombiavPortugal0–0Favored at 52%- Türkiyev
United States3–2Favored at 50% - TürkiyevParaguay0–1Favored at 48%
Netherlandsv
Japan2–2Favored at 45%- Belgiumv
Senegal3–2Favored at 45% - Japanv
Sweden1–1Favored at 44% - SpainvArgentina1–0Favored at 42%
- SwitzerlandvColombia0–0Favored at 41%
- NetherlandsvMorocco1–1Favored at 40%
- AustraliavEgypt1–1Favored at 40%
Ivory CoastvEcuador1–0Favored at 39%- Cabo VerdevSaudi Arabia0–0Favored at 39%
- FrancevSpain0–2Favored at 38%
- United StatesvBelgium1–4Favored at 37%
- EgyptvIran1–1Favored at 36%
- EnglandvArgentina1–2Favored at 36%